It's Starting to Look Overwhelming

Watching from PA-08. This election is turning out just the way the polls suggested it would. Fascinating. Somehow, no matter what we sometimes want to believe, the law of large numbers seems to hold, election cycle after election cycle.

I am in Pennsylvania's 8th District, where incumbent Michael Fitzpatrick (R) is trailing challenger Patrick Murphy (D) by less than 1,000 votes. This district (I grew up here) has long leaned moderate Republican, and still does, though it has gradually become more Democratic. Fitzpatrick ran a much better campaign, but Murphy (an Iraqi war veteran) fought hard.

When this race showed up as "competitive" about a month ago, I started to believe that the election was going to trend Democratic. Democratic challengers have already pulled off a bunch of upsets in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, so Murphy just might hold on.

We'll see, but probably not until tomorrow morning.